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    Rare earth industries: the end of the era of export quotas will come at the bottom

    Release date: September 27, 2014

         The price of rare earths will go through two steps:

         1)The policy effect is already on the way, and prices have hit bottom. And subsequent policy combination (such as the six major group was set up, hit the collusion, governance black industry chain, etc.) also is expected to be introduced will be accelerated by the end of 2014, (such as a recent ministry of the rare earth behind capacity elimination list for the first time, jiangxi xunwu's rare earths play the black, the ministry and other special investigation team composed of several ministries of rare earths in hunan province special inspection). What is important is that we do not doubt the government's crackdown on corruption, the enforcement of its policies or the expectation of its own.
         2)The establishment of the policy system for the realization of the rare earth (especially the light rare earth) has provided the safeguard "orderly" export, we prefer short-term brought by the export of rare earth prices pull effect, rare earth prices at home and abroad to mean reversion to a big probability event.
         3)And long-term perspective, the implementation of the AD valorem tax, environmental cost increase, as well as an increase in demand (emerging and back) is expected to provide the driving force of price rise for a long time.
         4)"In China can be implemented in heavy rare earth, let go of the light rare earth" this light has other governance idea, we can also be expected is that competition is expected to reshape the global rare earths, especially the Chinese open or make light rare earth export overseas light rare earth enterprise survival difficult, which is in transition has absolute resource advantage of baotou steel shares is expected to become the no 2 in the light rare earth in global resources, and will become the institutional bonus of quantity and price "so" the most direct beneficiaries.

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